Re: NYTimes.com: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually ). Here’s Where You’ll See It Firs t.

[http://dummy.us.eu.org/robert (Robert)]

 > From: Heather Howard <http://www.gmail.com/~hhoward40>
 > Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2019 10:52:52 -0700
 >
 > Robert, do you agree with these signs?

1. The problem with looking at the unemployment rate is that so many
   people are on the side-lines that it's hard to tell what the true
   unemployment rate is.  So, it's possible that we already have a very
   high unemployment rate; in which case, the economy isn't doing that
   great already.  I'll know that the unemployment rate is really low when
   Gail gets a job 😉.
2. Yeah, the inverted yield curve definitely indicates that a recession is
   coming within the next 4 to 20 months.
3. Agree about the manufacturing index, consumer sentiment, and other
   indicators.
4. What's missing from this list is business inventory and purchasing.
   That has definitely declined, and I think this is what has hurt my
   company the most recently.  It's probably a weak indicator in
   comparison with the other ones, but combined with the other ones can
   indicate trouble.

 > From The New York Times:
 > 
 > A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.
 > 
 > Economists don’t know when the decade-long expansion, now the longest in 
 > American history, will end. But here are the indicators they will be watching 
 > to figure it out.
 > 
 > https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html