> From: Noelle <noelle> > Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2019 16:36:45 -0700 (PDT) > > OMG! We already knew that Robert Samuelson has had strange ideas. > > Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2019 22:49:08 +0000 > > From: "FAIR" <http://www.fair.org/~fair> > > > > FAIR > > > > Japan Facing Nightmare Scenario of Longer Lives, Low Unemployment, Less > > Crowding > > > > view post on FAIR.org > > https://fair.org/home/japan-facing-nightmare-scenario-of-longer-lives-low-unemployment-less-crowding/?awt_l=JgWCG&awt_m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ > > WaPo: If you want a peek at the future, try looking at Japan. You may not > > like what you see. > > > > Or, well, you might. How do you feel about living to 107? > > > > by Dean Baker > > > > Oh no, Japan is running out of people! > > > > That’s what Robert Samuelson > > > > https://fair.org/home/robert-samuelsons-golden-age-mythology-2/?awt_l=JgWCG&awt_m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ > > tells us in his latest column ( Washington Post , 6/12/19 > > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&b=F3W81_zgtKLDT0yDHjEqwA > > ). That might seem a strange concern for a country that is ten times as > > densely populated as the United States, but Samuelson apparently sees it as > > a real nightmare. > > > > After all, if its population keeps shrinking, Japan will face a severe > > labor shortage. They may have a hard time getting people to fill > > lower-paying, lower-productivity jobs. For example, it might be hard to > > find workers to shove people > > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&b=s1WFGLmlLGNhD4.B1rzgtA > > onto Toyko’s overcrowded subways. > > > > But it gets worse. As a result of the social services required by the > > elderly, Japan has been running large deficits and built up an enormous > > debt: > > > > The mounting deficit spending has in turn ballooned Japan’s > > government debt > > > > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&b=0lbboUBT7PqK9vsRGH_TaQ > > to 226 percent of GDPâ”the highest ever recorded in the OECD > > area” and roughly twice the US level. > > > > Yes, and the burden of this debt is absolutely crushing to the Japanese > > people. According to the IMF > > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&b=Y5skiwmPkp0tpPbq1xTehw , > > Japan’s debt service burden will be equal to 0.1 percent of GDP this > > year, which is equal to roughly $20 billion in the US economy. And if the > > country continues on its current course, its debt service burden will turn > > negative in two years. > > > > The issue here is that Japan has negative (nominal) interest rates. Lenders > > pay the Japanese government to borrow their money. As a result, the > > interest burden on Japan’s “highest ever recorded” debt is no burden > > whatsoever. > > > > But wait, it gets worse. Samuelson tells us (citing economist Timothy > > Taylor): > > > > Half of Japanese children born in 2007 > > https://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=JgWCG&m=izG_UIv7iIR._TQ&b=0lbboUBT7PqK9vsRGH_TaQ > > are expected to live to 107. > > > > As we can see, the situation in Japan is pretty bad. Samuelson warns us > > that it could be our future, too, which I suppose might be possible if we > > fix our healthcare system. > > > > Samuelson and his clique really need to do a better job of finding a > > bogeyman.